Chris Darin, CFA, works as a sell-side senior analyst and vice president for a large Toronto brokerage firm researching mainly hedge funds and alternative investments. Darin recently hired Simon Nielsen for the position of junior analyst at the firm. Although Nielsen does not have experience evaluating hedge funds, Darin hired him mainly for his previous experience at a discount brokerage firm and for his passion for the industry. Darin frequently mentors Nielsen on market trends, investment styles, and on risks inherent in alternative investment vehicles. In a recent conversation, Darin makes the following statements: Statement 1: One way to measure hedge fund investment performance is through Jensen's alpha. A portfolio with negative Jensen's alpha would plot above the Security Market Line (SML). Statement 2: Both the Sharpe ratio and Jensen's alpha can be used to measure risk-adjusted hedge fund returns. Oneof the advantages is comparability between the two methods since both calculate return relative to systematic risk. Their conversation later shifts to discussing hedge fund classifications and how derivatives affect hedge fund performance measurement. Nielsen mentions that put options are often more advantageous than short selling in a market neutral strategy because of their asymmetric returns. The following week Darin asks Nielsen to research potential problems and biases in hedge fund indexes and general risks inherent in investing in hedge funds. Nielsen compiles the information and presents the following findings: 1. One of the data problems in hedge fund indexes is that managers often do not disclose negative fund performance. 2. The historical performance of hedge funds that are recently added to an index is often added to the past performance of the index. 3. Long/short equity hedge funds are subject to equity market risk. This risk is typically greater than with equity market neutral or risk arbitrage funds due to the higher standard deviations and market correlations inherent in long/short funds. 4. Fixed income arbitrage funds are also subject to equity market risk. These funds are short Treasuries and long high-credit-risk bonds. In an economic downturn the short position in Treasuries provides a buffer against the long position and provides a net gain. Finally, the two discuss the risk-free rate and various risk measures in hedge fund performance evaluation. Darin explains that even in market neutral strategies, the risk-free rate may not be an appropriate measure of fund performance. Nielsen does not understand and asks him to clarify. Darin further states that risk measures such as Value at Risk have several limitations as a risk measurement tool. Nielsen's findings on long/short equity funds and fixed income arbitrage strategies, respectively, are:
Natalia Berg, CFA, has estimated the key rate durations for several maturities in three of her $25 million bond portfolios, as shown in Exhibit 1.
At a fixed-income conference in London, Berg hears a presentation by a university professor on the increasing use of the swap rate curve as a benchmark instead of the government bond yield curve. When Berg returns from the conference, she realizes she has left her notes from the presentation on the airplane. However, she is very interested in learning more about whether she should consider using the swap rate curve in her work.
As she tries to reconstruct what was said at the conference, she writes down two advantages to using the swap rate curve:
Statement 1: The swap rate curve typically has yield quotes at 11 maturities between 2 and 30 years. The U .S . government bond yield curve, however, has fewer on-the-run issues trading at maturities of at least two years.
Statement 2: Swap curves across countries are more comparable than government bond curves because they reflect similar levels of credit risk.
Berg also estimates the nominal spread, Z-spread, and option-adjusted spread (OAS) for the Steigers Corporation callable bonds in Portfolio 2. The OAS is estimated from a binomial interest rate tree. The results are shown in Exhibit 2.
Berg determines that to obtain an accurate estimate of the effective duration and effective convexity of a callable bond using a binomial model, the specified change in yield (i.e., Ay) must be equal to the OAS.
Berg also observes that the current Treasury bond yield curve is upward sloping. Based on this observation, Berg forecasts that short-term interest rates will increase.
If the spot-rate curve experiences a parallel downward shift of 50 basis points:
In 2001, Continental Supply Company was formed to provide drilling equipment and supplies to contractors and oilfield production companies located throughout the United States. At the end of 2005, Continental Supply created a wholly owned foreign subsidiary, International Oilfield Incorporated, to begin servicing customers located in the North Sea. International Oilfield maintains its financial statements in a currency known as the local currency unit (LCU). Continental Supply follows U .S . GAAP and its presentation currency is the U .S . dollar. For the years 2005 through 2008, the weighted-average and year-end exchange rates, stated in terms of local currency per U .S . dollar, were as follows:
International Oilfield accounts for its inventory using the lower-of-cost-or-rnarlcet valuation method in conjunction with the first-in, first-out, cost flow assumption. All of the inventory on hand at the beginning of the year was sold during 2008. Inventory remaining at the end of 2008 was acquired evenly throughout the year. At the beginning of 2006, International Oilfield purchased equipment totaling LCU975 million when the exchange rate was LCU 1.00 to SI. During 2007, equipment with an original cost of LCU 108 million was totally destroyed in a fire. At the end of 2007, International Oilfield received a LCU 92 million insurance settlement for the loss. On June 30, 2008, International Oilfield purchased equipment totaling LCU 225 million when the exchange rate was LCU 1.25 to $1.
For the years 2007 and 2008, Continental Supply reported International Oilfield revenues in its consolidated income statement of S375 million and $450 million, respectively. There were no inter-company transactions. Following are International Oilfield's balance sheets at the end of 2007 and 2008:
At the end of 2008, International Oilfield's retained earnings account was equal to $525 million and, to date, no dividends have been paid. All of International Oilfield's capital stock was issued at the end of 2005. Assuming International Oilfield is a significantly integrated sales division and virtually all operating, investing, and financing decisions are made by Continental Supply, foreign currency gains and losses that arise from the consolidation of International Oilfield should be reported in:
Lauren Jacobs, CFA, is an equity analyst for DF Investments. She is evaluating Iron Parts Inc. Iron Parts is a manufacturer of interior systems and components for automobiles. The company is the world's second largest original equipment auto parts supplier, with a market capitalization of $1.8 billion. Based on Iron Parts's low price-to-book value ratio of 0.9* and low price-to-sales ratio of 0.15x, Jacobs believes the stock could be an interesting investment. However, she wants to review the disclosures found in the company's financial footnotes. In particular, Jacobs is concerned about Iron Parts's defined benefit pension plan. The following information for 2007 and 2008 is provided.
Iron Parts has adopted SFAS No. 158, Employers' Accounting for Defined Benefit Pensions and Other Postretirement Plans. Jacobs wants to fully understand the impact of changing pension assumptions on Iron Parts's balance sheet and income statement. In addition, she would like to compute Iron Parts's economic pension expense. Which of the following best describes the effect(s) of the change in Iron Part's expected return on the plan assets, all else equal?
Emily De Jong, CFA, works for Charles & Williams Associates, a medium-sized investment firm operating in the northeastern United States. Emily is responsible for producing financial reports to use as tools to attract new clients. It is now early in 2009, and Emily is reviewing information for O'Connor Textiles and finalizing a report that will be used for an important presentation to a potential investor at the end of the week. Following an acquisition of a major competitor in 1992, O'Connor went public in 1993 and paid its first dividend in 1999. Dividends are paid at the end of the year. After 2008, dividends are expected to grow for three years at 11%: $2.13 in 2009, $2.36 in 2010, and $2.63 in 2011. The average of the arithmetic and compound growth rates are given in Exhibit 1. Dividends are then expected to settle down to a long-term growth rate of 4%. O'Connor's current share price of $70 is expected to rise to $72.92 by the end of the year according to the consensus of analysts' forecasts.
O'Connor's annual dividend history is shown in Exhibit 1.
De Jong is also considering whether or not she should value O'Connor using a free cash flow model instead of the dividend discount model.
The output from the regression appears in Exhibit 2. De Jong determines that employing the CAPM to estimate the required return on equity suffers from the following sources of error: * Estimation of the model's inputs (e.g., the market risk premium). The company's dividend payment schedule. * The accuracy of the beta estimate. * Whether or not the model is the appropriate one to use. De Jong observes that two reputable statistical analysis firms estimate betas for O'Connor stock at 0.85 and 1.10. She concludes that the differences between her beta estimate and the published estimates resulted from her use of standard errors in her regression to correct for serial correlation; the other firms did not make a similar adjustment. De Jong considers using adjusted beta in her analysis. Typically, her company uses 1/3 for the value of .
She determines that her adjusted beta forecast will be closer to the mean reverting level using this value than it would be using a value of 1/3. Is De Jong correct with respect to her conclusions regarding the causes of the differences between her beta estimate for O'Connor and the published beta estimates, and her strategy for adjusting her beta estimate to more quickly approach the mean reverting level of beta?